TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Table of Figures
• Table of Tables
• 1 Executive Summary
• 2 Introduction
• 3 Refinement of Tasks
• 4 Documentation of Previous Studies
• 5 Baseline Analysis of Current Conditions
  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 Historical Data
  • 5.3 Traffic split between the Nogales POEs
  • 5.4 Mariposa POE Site visit
  • 5.5 Summary of Baseline Analysis
• 6 Model Alternatives
  • 6.1 Regression models
    • Univariate regression model
    • Multivariate regression model
    • Two tier regression model for the truck traffic
    • Variable selection
  • 6.2 Time series model
    • Univariate time series model
  • 6.3 Comparison of the models
    • Variable selection
    • The comparison result
  • 6.4 Model alternatives for other modes
    • POV
    • Pedestrian
    • Bus
    • Rail
• 7 Models
  • 7.1 Models for Truck Traffic
  • 7.2 Models for POV Traffic
  • 7.3 Models for Pedestrian Traffic
  • 7.4 Models for Bus Traffic
• 8 Forecasts
  • 8.1 Forecasts for Commercial Vehicles
    • Overview of Exchange Rate and Index of Industrial Production(IIP)
    • Five-Year forecast
    • Fifteen-Year forecast
  • 8.2 Forecast for the POV
  • 8.3 Forecast for pedestrian crossings
  • 8.4 Forecast for Bus Passengers
• 9 The Simulation Model
• 10 Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 10.1 Findings
  • 10.2 Future Research Opportunities
• 11 References
• APPENDIX A - LITERATURE SUMMARY
• APPENDIX B - STATISTICAL DETAIL
• APPENDIX C - SIMULATION MODEL DETAIL