Joint Working Committee
Futures Search Think Tank Meeting

Prepared for
The Joint Working Committee

Glen Hiemstra
Futurist.com

December 11-12, 2001

Futures Search Think Tank Meeting

This report contains a summary of the outcomes of the Futures Search workshop conducted by the Joint Working Committee in Phoenix, Arizona, December 11-12, 2001. The workshop was led by futurist Glen Hiemstra, from Futurist.com. The report captures verbatim the reports of working groups and whole group brainstorm or discussion sessions, as recorded on chart paper by group facilitators. With the exception of the draft preferred future vision statement (Page 2), the material is unedited. Each process result is preceded by a description of the process.

The purposes of the workshop were:

1. Review a global picture of bi-national border transportation and security by identifying and exploring trends and changes anticipated from the year 2001 to 2020
2. Anticipate implications of these trends
3. Develop features of a preferred future for bi-national border transportation and security

Publication Date: December 19, 2001

Contact:
Glen Hiemstra
Futurist.com
P.O. Box 2308
Kirkland, Washington 98033
425-576-1441 phone
425-576-0167 fax
www.futurist.com
ghiemstra@futurist.com

Table of Contents

Draft Preferred Future Vision (edited)
Key Strategic & Security Issues
Decades Activity - Past Decades
Decades Activity - 2001-2020 Forecast
Preferred Future Scenarios
Common Ground in Preferred Future Images
Appendix 1: Desired Outcomes and Questions
Appendix 2: Futures Search Agenda

DRAFT PREFERRED FUTURE VERSION FOR 2020 (Edited after the Futures Forum workshop)

This five-point draft vision captures the central outcome of the workshop. It is based on the final discussion of the whole JWC, as it reviewed their initial preferred future images and searched for the "common ground." JWC members were asked to review the preferred future images, and to summarize the images or ideas that were a) common, and/or b) most preferred. The JWC was encouraged to be as bold as possible, given that the vision was for nearly a twenty-year horizon. Initial ideas from four groups were combined, and then refined in discussion. The facilitator then further edited the final result to produce this draft.

The recommendation to the JWC was that this Draft Preferred Future Vision be considered until the next meeting of the JWC, where it might be further refined if necessary, and adopted as the Vision for 2020. The vision can then become the guiding document in creation of strategies and the next JWC work plan.

The draft preferred future vision for 2020 is written in the present tense, as though it is true in the year 2020.

Draft Preferred Future Vision for 2020

• There are open borders in the Americas. The "border" in a sense does not exist from California to Florida, Central America to Canada. We work and live in an environment of transparent borders with "welcome" signs
• A North American transportation system is in place. It includes hi-speed rail, a North American interstate highway system, roro trains, fast container ships, and efficient passenger travel
• There is a single clearing-house for trans-border crossings. Vehicles are pre-cleared before the borders with a single clearance process, and 85% of commercial traffic is pre-cleared. The single clearance process makes use of electronic ID and verification scanning, (which is also applied to banking). There is easy scanning at borders for pedestrians
• There is mutual trust and respect between all forms and levels of government. We have seen moral and ethical advances to go along with technological advances. There is full understanding and respect for cultural differences
• Quality transportation and logistics services are available everywhere, to everyone, for freight and passenger through all North America

KEY STRATEGIC AND SECURITY ISSUES

A second key outcome of the workshop was to list short term strategic and security issues that the JWC must address in order to move from the present situation toward the Preferred Future Vision. The JWC agreed that they would brainstorm issues that must be addressed in the next one to three years.

When the Preferred Future Vision is adopted at the next JWC meeting, this list of strategic issues can form the initial thinking on strategies that must be devised and pursued in a work plan.

Note the similarity among the four working groups, on issues of developing common standards and policies, identifying a North American transportation system, involving Canada in a common approach, increasing use of ITS technology, recommending infrastructure investment priorities, developing and piloting common port and border inspection facilities, and more.

Group 1

1. Mexico and Canada develop NHS and develop similar, minimum standards for highways and promote use of ports of the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean
2. Develop and propose a port authority that coordinates all agencies, develops a single clearing process and increases communication and development of joint projects with federal inspection agencies
3. Increase use of ITS technology and harmonize technologies across borders for security purposes
4. Begin legislative process to change law regarding borders and harmonize security processes, procedures, policies and regulations
5. JWC should recommend investment priorities for infrastructure and develop a financial strategy for bi-national, joint projects

Group 2

1. Complete border needs assessment, and prioritize needs in implementation plan
2. IT'S Applications to increase logistics efficiency and border security
3. Pilot a bi-national border inspection facility
4. Study feasibility of system of border "super ports."
5. Rail corridor and intermodal facilities plan

Group 3

1. Have in place reliable border inspection system that includes common standards in both land and marine ports, including illegal activities and security issues
2. Institutional framework for decision-making, (including other federal agencies)
3. Identify North American transportation system: establish a planning system and funding mechanism
4. Develop strategy to generate political support
5. Incorporate Canada into the process

Group 4

1. Define North American transportation system jointly between U.S., Mexico, and Canada
2. JWC coordinate with other security, safety and bi-national groups (e.g., Homeland Security Office, Border Governors Conference, Border Crossing and Bridges, and FIS Border Station Partnership Council, TSA)
3. JWC to promote a summit of three leaders on border/transportation issues (to arrive at a common vision)
4. Define elements of single clearinghouse for people and goods
5. Border-wide Transportation Plan, coordinated with GSA's ports of entry

DECADES - Looking Back

Prior to looking ahead, the JWC devoted an activity to exploring how change has occurred since 1950, in an exercise called the Decades activity. The entire group looked back at twenty or ten year time frames, and asked what key events, trends, and developments were happening during that time, in both countries and elsewhere.

When the three time periods were brainstormed and recorded, brief comments were made on themes that appear. Among the themes were increased globalization, increased economic activity and integration, increased information technology, increased speed of change, and deregulation.

1950-1970

Beatles
Cold War
Television
Space program, race to the Moon
Vietnam
Interstate highways
IS-35
Maquila industry
Populations double
Green revolution
Economic growth
Invention of cargo container

1970-1990

Berlin wall falls
Watergate
Energy crisis
Personal computer
U.S. airline deregulation
Satellite communications
Economic and market deregulation
Transportation deregulation
Internet
Increased poverty in Third World
Global trade
Double stack
Land bridges
European Union
Women in the workforce

1990-2001

NAFTA
9-11
Regionalization, new countries
Cell Phone
25th year of low economic growth in Mexico
Centralization of economy
Globalization
Information age, the WEB
Devaluation of the Peso
Drug trade
Longest sustained economic growth in U.S.
No families, having fewer children
Consolidation of transportation
Politics of change in Mexico
Oil
Growth of Hispanic population in U.S.
Privatization of transportation in Mexico

DECADES - Forecast of 2001-2020

Having looked back in time at patterns of change, the JWC explored how change might occur in the coming two decades, 2001-2020. Four working groups imagined that it was the year 2020 and that they were looking back at the events, trends, and developments that took place in the nearly twenty years back to the year 2001. With a brainstormed list, each working group selected the five most important items.

The emphasis in this activity is on anticipating probable and possible futures, and to attempt to be as "accurate" as possible, keying on the changes that we actually think are likely and of importance.

When the reports were complete, brief comments were made on themes that appear. Among the themes were open borders, increased globalization, increased economic activity and integration, alternate energy and transportation technologies, population changes and labor movement, technology continuing to displace labor, and high tech used for inspection and scanning, speed of.

After this discussion of Decades, Glen Hiemstra made a Power Point presentation on his view of "Drivers of Change." The presentation slides are in Appendix 3, or may be obtained on CD by contacting the JWC office. Glen discussed the techno-social-economic revolution now underway, driven by digital, bio, and nano technologies. He reviewed why it is more likely than not that a relatively robust economic period is ahead, driven by population dynamics and the spending wave, free trade, and technology convergence. Glen described how rapid travel, unique to the last half-century, has contributed to a boom in global tourism and economy. He concluded by discussing how the next twenty years will see a very large amount of change, how labor will continue to be displaced and reshaped by technology, and how critical will be the movement of commerce, people, and labor across transparent but secure borders for the future of North America.

Group 1: Forecast for 2001-2020

• Mexico Number One trading partner with U.S
• Open U.S. - Mexico and North American borders, similar to E.U., with common currency in North America, and economic integration
• More cultural pride and differentiation, contribute to more regional conflicts
• Greater dependence on alternate transportation methodologies, other than highways. Alternate fuels, with faster, cheaper transportation.
• Medical breakthroughs lead to increased life expectancy, and better quality of life
• Population growth, with increasing average age in North America, increased education required for employment, and increased tendency toward one language
• Labor-intensive manufacturing companies heading south of Mexico, while there is an agricultural crisis due to costs and corporate farming. Concentration of wealth and loss of civil liberties

Group 2: Forecast for 2001-2020

• Different form of border inspection that eliminates waiting in line. Advances in technology enable automated inspection
• Increase in national agreements similar to NAFTA
• Transportation is more efficient
• Big growth in the economy of both countries, dramatic increases in education, productivity and income
• National identification system using biometrics
• Income disparity between U.S., Canada, and Mexico will increase
• Will there be an increase or a decrease in the use illicit drugs, and illegal contraband entry?

Group 3: Forecast for 2001-2020

• Borders have opened with seamless transportation within NAFTA. There is seamless interface among all agencies that deal with trade
• Free trade in the Americas
• Telecommunications play an important role
• Global Logistics
• Mexico is a developed country

Group 4: Forecast for 2001-2020

• Land border crossings disappear
• Interstate highways connect all of North America, Central America, and South America
• Rebuilding railroads, highways through the Americas
• Free movement of labor in North America
• Tourism explosion, partly due to the many elderly

Other Probable and Possible Events, Trends and Developments brainstormed by the Groups

PREFERRED FUTURE SCENARIOS

In this future vision activity, four working groups were established. In a first step, the facilitator led the entire JWC in a visualization activity in which individuals were invited to imagine it was the year 2020, and in that year to make note of the most preferred things they see, regarding:

• Physical features - infrastructure, geographic areas, facilities, services, technology, etc.
• Intellectual features - systems, processes, management, organization, etc.
• Emotional features - feeling, social arrangements, sense of community, etc.
• Purpose or mission features - higher purpose, the ultimate aim.

Next, individuals shared their images around their working group, and the group gradually combined and refined ideas until they were able to report their five most preferred future images for 2020.

Then, the groups were asked to discuss and develop a set of key milestones or steps along the way to the preferred future in 2020, with the steps designated for two intermediate times, 2008, and 2015.

Each group reported their most preferred future images, and key steps.

The following day, the reports were reviewed, and the entire JWC worked to identify Common Ground in the Preferred Future Images.

GREEN - PREFERRED FUTURE IMAGES

• Mutual trust and respect between all forms and levels of government. Moral and ethical advances to go along with technological advances. Full understanding and respect for cultural differences.
• Work and live in a border-free environment. Transparent border with a "welcome sign.
• Transportation is safe and secure.
• Increased use of air & rail instead of trucks, now 85% of commercial traffic. Increased rail infrastructure. Total logistics and seamless intermodal door-to-door transport services in place in the region.
• Single clearing-house for trans-border crossings. 85% of commercial traffic is pre-cleared.

GREEN - STEPS ALONG THE WAY

• High speed rail infrastructure.
• Smart vehicle structures as a way of eliminating injury.
• Abolish concept of illegal immigrants.
• No more border inspections.
• Bi-national integrated intermodal transportation system.
• Legalized drugs, eliminating drug enforcement at the border.

• Equal opportunity.
• Free labor mobility.
• Mutual investment by nations.
• Convergence of systems.
• Convergence of institutional issues.
• Legalize all illegal immigrants.
• Bi-national coordinating authority.
• Study of Spanish & English & French an integral part of the education system.
• Share resources for more secure, safe transportation.
• Eliminate non-tariff barriers.

BLUE - PREFRRED FUTURE IMAGES

• Borders do not exist. (Border does not exist, California to Florida, Central America to Canada.)
• Single clearance process with easy scanning. (Easy scanning at borders for pedestrians. Vehicles pre-cleared before borders with single clearance process.)
• North American transportation system. (North American transportation system (Hi-speed rail, highway system, roro trains, fast container ships, efficient passenger travel.)
• JWC secure and direct and determined funding. (JWC will secure funding for transportation both sides of border and determine how funding is spent.)
• Quality and logistics services available everywhere. (Quality and transportation logistics services available for freight and passenger through all North America.)

BLUE - STEPS ALONG THE WAY

• Common perimeter system in place
• Full deployment of technology on borders and corridors (virtual inspections).
• Completed pilot projects. (tri-nationally funded, ITS, etc.)
• Construction of corridor projects.

• Implementation of common perimeter strategy as proposed by North American Committee.
• Legislation in place to fund projects in North American transportation corridors.
• Have developed plan for project implementation.
• Common information system architecture.

• Tri-national group by 2002 to discuss institutional issues.

RED - PREFERRED FUTURE IMAGES

• Open borders in the Americas.
• Electronic ID, verification, banking.
• Automated highways & railroads.
• Clean environment: air, water.
• Safe transportation.

RED - STEPS ALONG THE WAY

• Electronic verification of everyone.
• Harmonize roadway infrastructure.
• Building automated highway infrastructure.
• 50% of new autos are not fossil fuel based.
• Implementation of MUTCD and design standards.
• Equal application of laws, justice system.
• No paper, all electronic.

• Full implementation of NAFTA.
• Preferred shippers (truckers, drivers, brokers, importers) list with electronic verification and common database.
• Master plan for roadway infrastructure in North America.
• Harmonize regulatory laws in North America.
• Identify system for automation of transportation.
• Increase fuel efficiency and 25% of new autos are not fossil fuel based.
• Unification and integration of pertinent databases.

ORANGE - PREFERRED FUTURE IMAGES

• People living happily at home without the need to immigrate for better jobs.
• New transportation modes, like pipelines or conveyor belts. Underground conveyor belts connecting production with consumption centers.
• Increased number of entry points along the border.
• Totally automated border facility with limited manpower. Improvement in smart vehicle, smart pedestrian crossing.
• Technology replacing some need for travel, i.e., video conferencing, virtual reality, telecommuting.

ORANGE - STEPS ALONG THE WAY

• Raise living standards.
• Efficient bi-national, intermodal transportation system.

• Raise, increase availability of education.
• Develop Intermodalism.
• Roads built to the ports.
• Political support.
• Designate the need & placement of infrastructure.
• Develop cooperation with border agency. Legalize drugs, manage foreign labor program, effective tariff program.
• Increase funding for research program.

COMMON GROUND IN PREFERRED FUTURE IMAGES FOR 20200

To open the second day of the workshop, the Preferred Future Images from the previous day were reviewed. The JWC then considered which images were a) common and/or b) most preferred. Working groups discussed the images, and made arguments about which ought to be the most preferred. Each working group presented their five common group themes, which were combined into a total of five images for a draft vision.

It was these five ideas which were then discussed and refined into a draft vision, as reported on Page 2.

• Open borders in the Americas. Work and live in a border-free environment. Transparent border with a "welcome sign. Borders do not exist. (Border does not exist, California to Florida, Central America to Canada.)
• North American transportation system. (North American transportation system (Hi-speed rail, highway system, roro trains, fast container ships, efficient passenger travel.)
• Single clearing-house for trans-border crossings. 85% of commercial traffic is pre-cleared. Single clearance process with easy scanning. (Easy scanning at borders for pedestrians. Vehicles pre-cleared before borders with single clearance process.) Electronic ID, verification, banking.
• Mutual trust and respect between all forms and levels of government. Moral and ethical advances to go along with technological advances. Full understanding and respect for cultural differences.
• Quality transportation and logistics services available everywhere, to everyone, for freight and passenger through all North America.

APPENDIX 1

Desired Outcomes and Questions

As the Futures Search Think Tank began, introductions were made, the agenda was reviewed, and the approach of the workshop using three questions about the future was described. The three questions are: What is probable? What is possible? What is preferred? These three can be captured in some senses in the broader question of what is one's image of the future. With this background, working groups introduced themselves, and individuals were invited to briefly describe their desired outcomes for the workshop, or a critical question they hoped might be addressed. These were summarized and reported.

Group 1

1. Un marco de referencia para las actividades del grupo.
2. Dedicar mas tiempo a lo ingorante a largo plazo y menos a lo uegente (lorto plazo)
3. Mejor entendemiento de las opciones que se disponen al futures
4. Porque ___ tanta distancia entre lo que deseamos de interaccion y la realidad (obstaculos resistencia a la apurtura)?
5. Definir en que tema de trabajar el CCT para tener resultados concretos.
6. Un marco de referencia de largo plazo para la planncion y desarrollo del transporte en N.A.
7. 1. Facilitar coordinacion ewtre los gobiernos.
   2. Establecer metas communes.
8. Vamos en al sentido correcto con resparto al los objectivos inviciades?
9. Como al elerar los beneficios de la integracion NA ante los contrastes entre nuestros paises?

Group 2

1. Direction JWC going how we work to support goals and objectives.
2. Need guidance to understand goals.
3. Movement of trade and people while respecting sovereignty.
4. How can JWC help meet transportation needs in the next 20 years?
5. How does the JWC interface with border agencies other than transportation related to fulfill movement of trade and people?
6. Hope outcome results in definition of preferred future with high probability of being realized.

Group 3

1. Strategy for integrating border operations.
2. Start a plan for perimeter security (no borders)
3. Create an agency equivalent to Northern Border Commission/Mexican.
4. Talk about using technology to expedite trade.
5. How can we convince Congress for more funding for success stories?
6. What are the implications for the border of Homeland Security and TSA?
7. How do we address security issues?
8. How do we handle security issues when counterfeit documents can be obtained?
9. What can we accomplish in the short term?
10. How do we raise awareness of border issues beyond the border?
11. After seven years of committee, what has been accomplished?

APPENDIX 2

Joint Working Committee
Futures Search Think Tank Meeting
Program and Agenda

Phoenix
December 11-12, 2001

Introduction

Developing a compelling image of the long-range preferred future can provide a useful tool for the JWC in considering short-term action plans. This image would be of the "ideal, preferred future" for binational border transportation. It is now clear that a critical component of this preferred future in the near and long term will be border security.

The ideal future image will be created in a 1.5 day meeting of the JWC, using a process for developed the preferred future under the leadership of Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com. The process has been used previously in transportation planning, including planning done by FHWA. Most simply described, the process is one of discussion activities that explore three questions about the future: what is probable, what is possible, and what is preferred? Initial discussion activities would set the stage with overviews of probable and possible future developments of importance to binational border transportation. The bulk of the meeting would focus on participant design of a preferred future image. Participants would describe key elements of the preferred future, and then work to bring individual ideas together into common themes. The outcome would be a vision or image of the preferred future.

Primary Meeting Purposes

• Review a global picture of binational border transportation and security by identifying and exploring trends and changes anticipated from the year 2001 to 2020.
• Anticipate implications of these trends.
• Develop features of a preferred future for binational border transportation and security.

AGENDA

Day 1, December 11, 2001 (Full Day)

(8:00 AM) Gather

(8:30 AM) Welcome, Introductions
Overview of the Purpose of this meeting
Discussion: Critical Questions and Outcomes
Objective: Identify questions and outcomes for the meeting.
Process: Participants brainstorm critical questions, which they have, and outcomes they hope we might achieve during the meeting.
Product: A list of key questions and outcomes.

(9:15 AM) [Small Group Activity]
Preferred Futures Search, Change through the next two Decades
Objective: Explore how the transportation environment has changed through the decades and will change in the future, particularly in light of security concerns.
Process: Participants list and review changes by decade, looking for patterns and consequences. Small groups anticipate changes in the coming two decades. Themes are noted.
Product: Notes on anticipated changes, both probable and possible.

(10:30 AM) Break

(10:45 AM) Presentation & Discussion: Drivers of Change
Objective: Explore key drivers of change.
Process: Glen Hiemstra overviews drivers of change, adding additional content from his research, discussing how these will feed into the preferred future model.
Product: Notes on change implications.

(12:00 Noon) Working Lunch in teams: Participants explore implications of Change Drivers in discussion.

(1:15 PM) [Small Group Activity]
Discussion: Preferred Future Scenarios
Objective: Identify Preferred Future Scenarios
Process: Table groups brainstorm ideal preferred future scenarios for bi-national border transportation, with a target date of about 2020. Each table is given a particular set of variables, so that the scenarios are different. A key set of variables will be security concerns. The preferred elements are discussed, and then the table group selects the most preferred elements in their scenario. Each table groups reports it's preferred future scenario, noting the most preferred features in their scenario. Product: Several preferred future scenarios, with most preferred elements noted.

(4:30 PM) Adjourn for the day

Day 2 December 12, 2001 (Half Day)

(8:00 AM) Gather, coffee & refreshments

(8:30 AM) Welcome, Agenda Review
Objective: Organize for the second day.
Process: Glen Hiemstra presents a brief overview of results from Day 1, and previews day 2. Questions and Answers.

(9:00 AM) Finding Common Ground in Preferred Futures
Objective: Identify the common ground in preferred future scenarios.
Process: Glen Hiemstra leads the whole group in identifying "common ground" elements in their preferred futures. Critical preferred approaches to security will be highlighted.
Product: A list of common ground elements for a preferred future

(10:00 AM) Break

(10:15 AM) [Small Group Activity]
Developing Key Implications: Strategic & Security Issues
Objective: Propose Key Implications, Strategic & Security Issues for JWC
Process: Brainstorm a list of critical strategic & security issues that the JWC will need to address, if the JWC is to move toward the preferred future image.
Product: Final list of a few critical Strategic & Security Issues.

(11:30 AM) Clarify Next Steps

(12:00 Noon) Adjourn Futures Search Meeting